Quantitative modelling of the human–Earth System a new kind of science?

The five grand challenges set out for Earth System Science by the International Council for Science in 2010 require a true fusion of social science, economics and natural science—a fusion that has not yet been achieved. In this paper we propose that constructing quantitative models of the dynamics of the human–Earth system can serve as a catalyst for this fusion. We confront well-known objections to modelling societal dynamics by drawing lessons from the development of natural science over the last four centuries and applying them to social and economic science. First, we pose three questions that require real integration of the three fields of science. They concern the coupling of physical planetary boundaries via social processes; the extension of the concept of planetary boundaries to the human–Earth System; and the possibly self-defeating nature of the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals. Second, we ask whether there are regularities or ‘attractors’ in the human–Earth System analogous to those that prompted the search for laws of nature. We nominate some candidates and discuss why we should observe them given that human actors with foresight and intentionality play a fundamental role in the human–Earth System. We conclude that, at sufficiently large time and space scales, social processes are predictable in some sense. Third, we canvass some essential mathematical techniques that this research fusion must incorporate, and we ask what kind of data would be needed to validate or falsify our models. Finally, we briefly review the state of the art in quantitative modelling of the human–Earth System today and highlight a gap between so-called integrated assessment models applied at regional and global scale, which could be filled by a new scale of model

The nonlocal model of porewater irrigation: Limits to its equivalence with a cylinder diffusion model

Burrows maintained by animals in aquatic sediments ventilate the sediment and can substantially alter the rates and pathways of biologically-mediated decomposition reactions. A well known and effective way of modeling the impact of such bioirrigation in sediment diagenetic models is to assume that solutes diffuse into an annulus of sediment surrounding the burrow; the reaction diffusion equations are represented in cylindrical polar co-ordinates. More commonly, bioirrigation of sediments is represented by one-dimensional nonlocal irrigation models. Their use is typically justified by the assertion that a nonlocal model is equivalent to a radially-integrated two-dimensional diffusion model in cylindrical-polar co-ordinates. In this paper we highlight limits to this equivalence, drawing on examples from both single-species and multiple-species reaction diffusion models. A modified derivation of the nonlocal model using a higher order Taylor series approximation was tested but found to provide little improvement over the original model. We suggest some approaches for choosing nonlocal coefficients and identify particular limitations to be alert to when applying the nonlocal model

The water-food-energy nexus in Pakistan: A biophysical and socio-economic challenge

We draw on previous work examining historical trends, likely future water use and food availability in Pakistan and extend the analysis to consider interactions with hydropower generation and the energy demand in food production due to pumping of groundwater for irrigation. Business-as-usual scenarios suggest growing demands for groundwater and energy use for food production as population grows rapidly. However, groundwater use is already unsustainable in many areas, and energy supply is failing to keep up with demand. Quantifying material linkages between water, food and energy provides a means to explore biophysical constraints. Characterising institutional constraints is equally important, as they can be significant barriers to effective stewardship of water, energy and food resources. The experience in Pakistan reinforces this finding, and we discuss the implications for hydrologists

Expertise in research integration and implementation for tackling complex problems: when is it needed, where can it be found and how can it be strengthened?

Expertise in research integration and implementation is an essential but often overlooked component of tackling complex societal and environmental problems. We focus on expertise relevant to any complex problem, especially contributory expertise, divided into ‘knowing-that’ and ‘knowing-how.’ We also deal with interactional expertise and the fact that much expertise is tacit. We explore three questions. First, in examining ‘when is expertise in research integration and implementation required?,’ we review tasks essential (a) to developing more comprehensive understandings of complex problems, plus possible ways to address them, and (b) for supporting implementation of those understandings into government policy, community practice, business and social innovation, or other initiatives. Second, in considering ‘where can expertise in research integration and implementation currently be found?,’ we describe three realms: (a) specific approaches, including interdisciplinarity, transdisciplinarity, systems thinking and sustainability science; (b) case-based experience that is independent of these specific approaches; and (c) research examining elements of integration and implementation, specifically considering unknowns and fostering innovation. We highlight examples of expertise in each realm and demonstrate how fragmentation currently precludes clear identification of research integration and implementation expertise. Third, in exploring ‘what is required to strengthen expertise in research integration and implementation?,’ we propose building a knowledge bank. We delve into three key challenges: compiling existing expertise, indexing and organising the expertise to make it widely accessible, and understanding and overcoming the core reasons for the existing fragmentation. A growing knowledge bank of expertise in research integration and implementation on the one hand, and accumulating success in addressing complex societal and environmental problems on the other, will form a virtuous cycle so that each strengthens the other. Building a coalition of researchers and institutions will ensure this expertise and its application are valued and sustained.This article has its origins in the 2013 First Global Conference on Research Integration and Implementation (Integration and Implementation Sciences 2019a), which brought together the authors and specifically drew on all three realms of expertise. The conference was supported by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence on Policing and Security and The Australian National University. Co-conferences in Germany, The Netherlands and Uruguay were, respectively, sponsored by Leuphana University of Lueneburg; the Centre for Innovation at Campus The Hague, Leiden University; and the Espacio Interdisciplinario, Universidad de la República

Expertise in research integration and implementation for tackling complex problems: when is it needed, where can it be found and how can it be strengthened?

© 2020, The Author(s). Expertise in research integration and implementation is an essential but often overlooked component of tackling complex societal and environmental problems. We focus on expertise relevant to any complex problem, especially contributory expertise, divided into ‘knowing-that’ and ‘knowing-how.’ We also deal with interactional expertise and the fact that much expertise is tacit. We explore three questions. First, in examining ‘when is expertise in research integration and implementation required?,’ we review tasks essential (a) to developing more comprehensive understandings of complex problems, plus possible ways to address them, and (b) for supporting implementation of those understandings into government policy, community practice, business and social innovation, or other initiatives. Second, in considering ‘where can expertise in research integration and implementation currently be found?,’ we describe three realms: (a) specific approaches, including interdisciplinarity, transdisciplinarity, systems thinking and sustainability science; (b) case-based experience that is independent of these specific approaches; and (c) research examining elements of integration and implementation, specifically considering unknowns and fostering innovation. We highlight examples of expertise in each realm and demonstrate how fragmentation currently precludes clear identification of research integration and implementation expertise. Third, in exploring ‘what is required to strengthen expertise in research integration and implementation?,’ we propose building a knowledge bank. We delve into three key challenges: compiling existing expertise, indexing and organising the expertise to make it widely accessible, and understanding and overcoming the core reasons for the existing fragmentation. A growing knowledge bank of expertise in research integration and implementation on the one hand, and accumulating success in addressing complex societal and environmental problems on the other, will form a virtuous cycle so that each strengthens the other. Building a coalition of researchers and institutions will ensure this expertise and its application are valued and sustained

Health effects of indoor air quality on children and young people

Air pollution is the environmental public health problem of our time. The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child sets out clear guidance to protecting the rights of children and young people, including a child's right to the best possible health (Article 24) and the right to a good standard of living. Unicef also consider that clean air is a right for all children. The UK Royal Medical Colleges vigorously advocate for a healthy environment at the population level and in local communities, especially where socio-economic circumstances limit the choice of where people can live, and which school children attend. Despite substantial progress in understanding outdoor air pollution, the potential risk to health, especially that of children and young people, from the indoor air has been largely overlooked, yet in modern times, the indoor environment has never been more important as lockdown with the Covi-19 virus pandemic has shown us. Here we provide an abridged version of the RCPCH/RCP Report The inside story: Health effects of indoor air quality on children and young people but without the section on recommendations. The full Report along with recommendations, released on 28 January 2020, can be accessed at https://www.rcpch.ac.uk/resources/inside-story-health-effects-indoor-air-quality-children-young-people. While we recognise that some aspects of this commentary are UK specific, much of the content has wide implication

Macrophage phenotype is associated with disease severity in preterm infants with chronic lung disease.

The etiology of persistent lung inflammation in preterm infants with chronic lung disease of prematurity (CLD) is poorly characterized, hampering efforts to stratify prognosis and treatment. Airway macrophages are important innate immune cells with roles in both the induction and resolution of tissue inflammation

Effect of training and sudden detraining on the patellar tendon and its enthesis in rats

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Different conditions may alter tendon characteristics. Clinical evidence suggests that tendon injuries are more frequent in athletes that change type, intensity and duration of training. Aim of the study was the assessment of training and especially detraining on the patellar tendon (PT) and its enthesis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>27 male adult Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into 3 groups: 20 rats were trained on a treadmill for 10 weeks. Of these, 10 rats were euthanized immediately after training (trained group), and 10 were caged without exercise for 4 weeks before being euthanized (de-trained group). The remaining 7 rats were used as controls (untrained rats). PT insertion, structure (collagen fiber organization and proteoglycan, PG, content), PT thickness, enthesis area, and subchondral bone volume at the enthesis were measured by histomorphometry and microtomography.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both PG content and collagen fiber organization were significantly lower in untrained and detrained animals than in trained ones (<it>p </it>< 0.05 and <it>p </it>< 0.0001). In the detrained group, fiber organization and PG content were worse than that of the untrained groups and the untrained group showed a significantly higher score than the detrained group (<it>p </it>< 0.05). In the trained group, the PT was significantly thicker than in untrained group (<it>p </it>< 0.05). No significant differences in the enthesis area and subchondral bone volume among the three groups were seen.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Moderate exercise exerts a protective effect on the PT structure while sudden discontinuation of physical activity has a negative effect on tendons. The present results suggest that after a period of sudden de-training (such as after an injury) physical activity should be restarted with caution and with appropriate rehabilitation programs.</p

What can Olympus Mons tell us about the Martian lithosphere?

Under gravitational loading, a volcanic edifice deforms, and the underlying lithosphere downflexes. This has been observed on Earth, but is equally true on other planets. We use finite element models to simulate this gravity-driven deformation at Olympus Mons on Mars. Eleven model parameters, including the geometry and material properties of the edifice, lithosphere and underlying asthenosphere, are varied to establish which parameters have the greatest effect on deformation. Values for parameters that affect deformation at Olympus Mons, Mars, are constrained by minimising misfit between modelled and observed measurements of edifice height, edifice radius, and flexural moat width. Our inferred value for the Young's modulus of the Martian lithosphere, 17.8 GPa, is significantly lower than values used previously, suggesting that the Martian lithosphere is more porous than generally assumed. The best-fitting values for other parameters: edifice density (2111 – 2389 kg.m –3) and lithosphere thickness (83.3 km) are within ranges proposed hitherto. The best-fitting values of model parameters are interdependent; a decrease in lithosphere Young's modulus must be accompanied by a decrease in edifice density and/or an increase in lithosphere thickness. Our results identify the parameters that should be considered within all models of gravity-driven volcano deformation; highlight the importance of the often-overlooked Young's modulus; and provide further constraints on the properties of the Martian lithosphere, namely its porosity, which have implications for the transport and storage of fluid throughout Mars' history